Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded -0.8% lower. 
  • European markets are trading 0.7% lower.
  • US futures are trading -0.7% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Jobless Claims (8:30), Retail Sales (8:30), Business Inventories (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30), Janet Yellen Speaks (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Despite early morning gains, the market managed to finish break even yesterday. 
  • Today will see a large gap down in all the major indices. The key will be whether we see the dip buyers come in strong similar to what we saw on 2/5. 
  • The bulls, without having made new highs, cannot afford to give up much ground. Doing so will revive the bears and possibly create a renewed selling interest in the market. 
  • Watch 1809 today as that has lended itself as support in the past. 
  • Volume was slightly below average and similar to what we saw the two previous days of trading. 
  • VIX dropped to 14.30 yesterday. 
  • Stochastics are overbought yet again. 
  • At this point, with major levels of resistance cleared, the next milestone for the bulls will be to make new all-time closing highs. 
  • SPX 30-minute chart is extremely over extended after massive move off of last week’s lows. 
  • These rallies off of significant pullbacks like we have seen over the past week of trading can actually go higher than one would expect, and can rally for 2-3 weeks without any significant selling taking place. 
  • The biggest technical stronghold is the strength SPX found from the trend line that started off of the August ’13 lows. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 2-12-14

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