Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.6% higher. 
  • European markets are trading 0.8% higher. 
  • US futures are trading flat ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30), Redbook (8:55)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Despite a significant gap down in the SPX and indices across the board, the SPX rallied to impressively to finish the day in the green. 
  • That shows me despite government ‘default’ allegations out there, the dip buyers are in full force and Wall Street doesn’t believe the nonsense that Washington is spewing. 
  • Found intraday support on the 20-day moving average. 
  • In four days we have rallied an impressive 64 points on the SPX. 
  • Resistance at 1718 over head as shown below. 
  • SPX has entered overbought territory. 
  • Volume has tapered off significantly the last two days. Though yesterday was Columbus day – a federal holiday. 
  • VIX rose to 16.07. 
  • There is a strong chance, at any moment for news, rumors, false rumors to rock the market in the opposite direction with the ongoing talks in Washington between Republicans and Democrats. 
  • If we truly plan on on holding Wednesday’s lows, then this market bounce will be very strong, much like we saw off of recent lows in late June and late August. 
  • Key for bears is to take price back below 1689 which would take price back below the risking trend-line off of the November 2012 lows. 
  • A move below 1627 would mark a new lower-low in the market and confirm a downtrend for the first time since the November 2012 lows were established. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:


  • Added LYV at 18.80 – long. 
  • Added CMI at 133.25 – long
  • Added two more long  positions yesterday. 
  • Sold ATI at 29.69 for a 4.3% loss. 
  • Despite current conditions, the likelihood that Congress will not resolve stalemate beyond the alleged default deadline is a low probability. One side will cave. Remember  you’re dealing with a bunch of cowards in DC. 
  • Currently 60% long / 40% cash.  
  • Current Longs: GNW 12.82, ACAS at 13.67. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 10-15-13

 

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