Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

• European markets are trading 0.8% higher..
• Asian markets traded 0.9% higher.
• US futures are trading moderately higher ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), EIA Petroleum STatus Report (10:30am), FOMC Statement (2pm), FOMC Presser (2:30pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• With the behavior we are getting out of the pre-market, the SPX is set to open  up only 4 points off of its recent highs. Pretty amazing when you consider we have pulled back for three straight days. 
• These dead cat bounces aren’t anything to take likely these days. If they hold on the first day, they typically lead to subsequent higher days. 
• I don’t recommend using dead cat bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions. 
• Market is starting to become rumor driven yet again – this time surrounding the country of Cyprus. 
• FOMC statement comes out today. Initial move is usually a fake-out, which is followed by a second move in the form of a reversal. The legitimate move doesn’t usually come until the 3rd significant price movement. Then that is usually your ultimate move in price action. 
• Careful with mornings we gap up. Often times, gaps higher are sold-off after the first hour of trading. 
• Dip buyers continue to curb market weakness each day. 
• Volume has continued to strengthen during the sell-off – a very positive sign for the bears. 
• VIX is back into the 14’s. 
• The SPX has yet to experience 4-straight days of selling since 12/21, so the bears have a tall order in front of it today. 
• The nearest  short-term support level for this market lies at 1514. At which point if that breaks, a test of the rising down channel would be in order at 1513. 
• Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
• Also the amount of margin being used to buy stocks are at levels that historically have led to notable reversals in the market. 
• SPX remains extremely overbought in the short-term. 
• Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
• We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

• Shorted TRW at $58.28.
• Remain Long SLV at $27.97, short PETM at $62.48, RCL at $33.57. 
• Remaining patient at these elevated price levels – not going to force position that aren’t there. 
• Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX: