Trading Plan for Nov. 15, 2010

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 73% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Retail Sales (8:30am), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Business Inventories (10am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

• Futures are slightly up. 
• Asian markets were mixed, European markets are rallying off their lows, but still remain mixed in their returns. 
• S&P broke and closed below the 10-day average. Throughout the duration of the current trend, when this has happened, there has been a strong rally the following market session. 
• The current trend-line flattened out a little more – something that has consistently taken place throughout this rally. But no lower-low has been established. 
• S&P found support at the 20-day moving average. Which it has not closed below since 9/1. 
• On the weekly charts, the S&P held support at the 200-week moving average. A break below this moving average could signal a major move downwards. 
• We’ll have POMO every day this week. The full schedule can be found here.
• One big question surrounding Wall Street is whether QE2 will represent a “sell-the-news” type of event.
• The volume from the previous two market sessions has been nothing spectacular – very average. 
• Main goal for the bulls is to hold the 20-day moving average; best case scenario is close above the previous day’s highs at 1210, or reclaim the 10-day moving average. 
• Throughout this year, the bears have been burned numerous times by not taking profits after significant market sell-offs. Could lead to them being all-to-willing to do so today. 
• Bears should aim to close below 20-day moving average at 1195, and the lows from Friday. Ideally, a close below 1183, would cause a lot of problems for the bulls. 

Actions I Will Be Taking:

• May add 1-2 new positions to the portfolio should the market stabilize today. 
• Stopped out of MON, SPY, NFLX, and BIDU at my stop-losses on Friday. 
• If the market closes below the 20-day moving average, I will close out my long positions as a result. 
• Added HTZ, GS, KR & HRS to the portfolio on the 20-day MA test. 
• Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas.