Trading Plan for April 15, 2011

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): HD (37.16), AMGN (53.93), AMLN (11.25), GLW (19.04), BTU (63.75), ADBE (33.78)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 50% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Treasury International Capital (9am), Industrial Production (9:15am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

• Futures are flat heading into the open.
• Asian markets traded in a mixed fashion, and Europe is doing the same.
• S&P managed to rebound very nicely yesterday after a hard sell-off at the open and form a hammer candle to end the day (hammers are bullish typically).
• However, it was unable to close above the 50 and 20-day moving averages.
• Volume was in line with what we’ve been seeing this week.
• We tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels yesterday and held it – in this case it was the 1305.
• I think the next couple of days are very important for the market, either we bounce here and re-challenge recent highs off of oversold conditions, or we usher in a new wave of selling that could take us back down to the March lows.
•  The 17-point downward channel that we had seen the S&P trading in dating back to last Friday was broken yesterday afternoon.
• Talk about a double-top quickly gaining steam. Will need to break and close above 1340 to end this discussion. A break below 1249 would confirm the double top.
• Despite the sluggishness the market has exhibited since the beginning of the month, the market has only been able to peel off 1% since 4/1.
• The market is now considered oversold in the very short-term.
• S&P Fibonacci retracement levels to watch are 38.2% = 1305, 50% = 1294, 61.8% = 1283.
• The longer-term trend of the market suggests the market is in a state of flux/confusion, with steep sell-offs taking place over the past two months, but no long-term downtrend having been established.
• My conclusion: Bulls need to bounce in the next day or two, if not, could be a telling sign, that they are hanging it up for now.

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

• Added ADBE to the portfolio yesterday at $34.40
• Regretably sold out of AMLN yesterday after it hit my stop – news out today has it up +12% – big bummer.
• GLW showing a lot of strength, may look to book some gains in that position today.
• I’ll look to add an additional 2 positions today, but will balance it with selling a few other names already in the portfolio.
• Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas (as well as everyone else’s).