• SP 500 Market Analysis 12-4-15

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX continued its selling ways – falling another 1.4% yesterday down to 2049. 
  • Jobs report this morning – 211k actual vs 200k expected. Market rallied a small bit as a result. 
  • Saudi Arabia not cutting production has since wiped out all those gains. 
  • Since breaking out on Tuesday, the market has now reversed course and lost over 54 points to the downside in the last two days alone. 
  • Short-term trend-line off of the 10/14 lows looks to possibly be tested today, along with the 50-day moving average. 
  • 200-day moving average was lost yesterday. 
  • If the 11/16 lows are lost at 2019, you have a confirmed double top pattern that is now in play on SPX and the market turns decidedly bearish as a result. 
  • VIX rallied another 13% yesterday (up as much as 20% at one point) to close at 18.11.
  • There is a strong trend-line downward on the VIX that has marked the bottom of every sell-off of late on SPX. Yesterday that trend-line was tested, but VIX closed just beneath it. 
  • SPY volume was very strong, and the strongest that we have seen since October. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart shows a strong triangle pattern that SPX is trading inside of here. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) completely broke down yesterday losing 20% to finish at 36% on the day. 
  • SPY is essentially sitting in the middle of the range that has plagued the market all year long, outside of the August/September sell-off. 
  • For twelve years straight, the market over the course of the last 30 trading days of the calendar year, has yielded a net positive gain, and thus reinforcing the concept of the “Santa Rally”.

My Trades:

  • Sold CVX yesterday at 89.77 for a 2.6% loss. 
  • Sold UPRO yesterday at 65.51 for a 1.8% loss. 
  • Added two additional long positions to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • Will consider adding one to two new long positions to the portfolio today IF the market can show a willingness to rally today. 
  • 60% Long / 40% Cash
  • Remain long: AMZN at $673.85, ADSK at $63.63, CRM at $79.86 and three other positions. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 12-4-15

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