Pre-market update (updated 7:30am eastern):
- European markets are trading 0.2% higher but in mixed fashion.
- Asian markets traded 1.5% higher.
- US futures are trading flat with a slight negative bias ahead of the opening bell..
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- On increased volume yesterday, the market broke out of the four day consolidated area it had previously been trading inside of.
- The upper channel provides resistance today at 1489 should we get to that level. It will likely stop any market rally from progressing further.
- I’m becoming somewhat concerned by this market because now we have one very large gap and one smaller gap (formed yesterday) that has yet to be filled on the SPY.
- Since 1/3 the SPX has been trading in overbought territory.
- I don’t think the bulls want to see this market pullback beyond 1466 before popping higher again, but absolutely it needs to stay above 1451.
- 30-minute chart confirms the breakout quite nicely.
- VIX actually moved higher yesterday, but still in the 13’s.
- Of late, there have been quite a few market rallies/sell-offs in the last hour of trading, much like what we saw yesterday and Friday.
- Notice the channel that we are currently trading in, off of the November lows (see chart below).
- There’s really no significant level of resistance for the market above 1466 until you get to 1501.
- It will take a significant move, but below 1398, the trend will be very bearish.
- Be aware of upcoming news events and discussions that will permeate the markets: Debt Ceiling Debate, Fiscal Cliff Part II, Employment Recovery.
My Opinions & Trades:
- No new trades yesterday.
- Remain Short TEVA at $38.10 and Long VMC at $53.35, WCC at $68.24, BG at $75.11, LO at $39.16, UAL at $26.05.
- Stop-Losses have been updated for a number of positions.
- Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance
Chart for SPX:


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