Pre-market update (updated 7:30am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.2% higher but in mixed fashion.
  • Asian markets traded 1.5% higher. 
  • US futures are trading flat with a slight negative bias ahead of the opening bell.. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • On increased volume yesterday, the market broke out of the four day consolidated area it had previously been trading inside of. 
  • The upper channel provides resistance today at 1489 should we get to that level. It will likely stop any market rally from progressing further. 
  • I’m becoming somewhat concerned by this market because now we have one very large gap and one smaller gap (formed yesterday) that has yet to be filled on the SPY
  • Since 1/3 the SPX has been trading in overbought territory. 
  • I don’t think the bulls want to see this market pullback beyond 1466 before popping higher again, but absolutely it needs to stay above 1451. 
  • 30-minute chart confirms the breakout quite nicely. 
  • VIX actually moved higher yesterday, but still in the 13’s. 
  • Of late, there have been quite a few market rallies/sell-offs in the last hour of trading, much like what we saw yesterday and Friday.
  • Notice the channel that we are currently trading in, off of the November lows (see chart below).
  • There’s really no significant level of resistance for the market above 1466 until you get to 1501. 
  • It will take a significant move, but below 1398, the trend will be very bearish. 
  • Be aware of upcoming news events and discussions that will permeate the markets: Debt Ceiling Debate, Fiscal Cliff Part II, Employment Recovery. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 1-18-13

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