Today’s Trading Plan: Still Holding On

Technical Outlook:

• SPX was breaking below last week’s lows until the petroleum report came out and provided a massive boost to stocks, rallying 23 points off of their lows. 
• In doing so, SPX quickly reclaimed its 5-day and 10-day moving averages. 
• SPY looking at a gap down this morning, and with it, the inevitable attempt by the bulls early on to buy the dip and fade the gap down. 
• As mentioned before, the bears have a horrible time in maintaining the gap gap downs, though it is worth noting that Tuesday, it managed to do just that, after closing the gap intraday (just look at the chart, it’ll make sense, I promise). 
• SPY 20-day moving average is offering some support, and where the buying started at yesterday. 
• Big move in the VIX yesterday that saw it move back down 8.6% following the big move up the day prior. 
• T2108 showing some decay with only a 3.2% rebound yesterday. Still remains at 80% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average. 
• 2100 on the S&P 500 remains the key price level to watch – its the declining trend-line off of the July highs. 
• Volume was at similar levels to what we saw the day prior but still below recent averages. 
• Two key price levels to watch today – 1) The Friday lows from last week. 2) The lows from March 24th. Particularly, if the latter should break, it would put in a lower-low into the downtrend. 
• Between 2040 and the all-time highs the price action is very congested with plenty of resistance. 
• A break of the March 24th lows would also result in a break of the 20-day moving average which would be something the market hasn’t seen since February 12th. 
• Potential head and shoulders pattern forming on SPX 30 minute chart. 
• The market has hardly seen any correction over the last seven weeks – with only one of the weeks resulting in a lower close from the opening price. 
• April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years. 
• Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

• Did not add any new swing-trades yesterday. 
• Did not add any new swing-trades yesterday. 
• Currently 10% Long / 90% Cash
• Remain long TLT at $129.52
• Will look to add short or long exposure here today depending on the direction the market decides to take. 
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: