Today’s Trading Plan: Two Days of Trading Left in 2015

Technical Outlook:

• Nice, strong move by SPX yesterday that took the index well outside and above the triangle pattern it was previously trading in.
• A higher-high was formed finally, for the first time since early November, by breaking 2076 and closing above it.
• Volume increased yesterday, but was well below average, as was expected during a historically light week of trading.
• Double bottom confirmation was made yesterday on SPX 30 minute chart by breaking above 2076 level.
• Descending trend-line off of the 11/3 highs could offer up some resistance at 2089.
• VIX didn’t  drop much considering the move higher in SPY yesterday, closing 5% down to 16.07.
• T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) rose 12 points to 40% and continues to rise strong. 
• Case could be make  that SPX is in a bull-flag pattern that confirms above 2089, following the bounce off of the September lows. 
• Oil sell-off this AM is weighing heavily on the market. Basically the story of 2015. 
• Tomorrow is the last full trading day of the year.
• Key this week, with low volume trading, is whether it can continue on with the gains from last week. Historically, this week and last is the best two-week trading set of the year, and is where your infamous “Santa Rally” kicks off. 
• On SPY the absolute key level for it rests at $200. A break below this level would send SPY firmly into bear territory. 
• There is a rising trend-line off of the September lows on SPX that has been tested twice in the past three weeks and held up perfectly. 
• A lot of talk about the “Golden Cross” taking place on SPX with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average. I don’t put much weight behind this phenomenon. 
• For twelve years straight, the market over the course of the last 30 trading days of the calendar year, has yielded a net positive gain, and thus reinforcing the concept of the “Santa Rally”. In order for that to happen again, SPX would need to stay above 2050 and remain there through year-end. 

My Trades:

• Did not add any new positions to the portfolio yesterday. 
• Did not close any positions yesterday. 
• Not expecting this to be a heavy trading day for me. Active trading for me to resume next week, to start the new year.  I may close out a few positions today though. 
• Currently 70% Long / 30% Cash
• Remain long UTX at $94.58, UPRO at $60.63, QLD at $76.77, ADBE at $92.42 and three additional positions. 
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: