• SP 500 Market Analysis 3-24-16

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX finally saw a respectable sell-oiff yesterday for the first time in the last 10 trading sessions, and only the second time in the last 16 trading sessions. 
  • More weakness at the open, but if there is one thing that is true with this current market, that the bears struggle when there is a gap down. 
  • If the bears can actually hold the gap down, the day could ultimately get really ugly for the bulls and result in plenty of profit taking. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart hasn’t put in a lower-low yet, but it does show signs of being distributive here. 
  • SPY volume was almost non-existent again yesterday and still hovering at the lowest volume levels of the year. 
  • Oil broke the rising channel that had previously held perfectly – weakness should continue in the commodities. 
  • TLT showing signs of wanting to pull itself out of its bull flag that it has been trading in since 2/11. 
  • Minor bounce in VIX yesterday, popping 5.4% to 14.94. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) dropped 5% down to 81.62.
  • SPX lost its 5-day moving average yesterday for the first time since 3/10. The big one will be the 10-day moving average which will likely be broken at the market open today. 
  • Tons and tons of year long resistance between 2040 and all-time highs.
  • If you are bearish at this point, the key isn’t to be extremely bearish, but to be bearish for a modest pullback. A digestion of recent gains. Don’t get greedy with the profits that could be made. 
  • The theme in the market of late is not how much it is going up each day but how much it manages to recover off of the lows of the day. 
  • SPX rallied for a 5th straight week, and in excess of 1% each time – not seen since the bottom of March 2009 was hit. 

My Trades:

  • Did not add any new swing-trades yesterday. 
  • Did not close out any swing-trades yesterday.
  • Remain Long SPXU at $29.57 (Short S&P 500 ETF)
  • Currently 10% Short / 90% Cash
  • Careful to add long exposure considering that the market is as overbought as has been in years. A pullback, not necessarily a major one is in order here. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 3-24-16

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