• end to a historical quarter on the stock market

end to a historical quarter on the stock market

Technical Outlook:

  • Gap up yesterday held on but not in an overly convincing manner on the SPY – finishing slightly lower than its opening price. 
  • Volume trailed off from the day prior and is still well below recent averages. 
  • Potential bull flag pattern forming on the SPY 30 minute chart. 
  • Yesterday’s price action represented okay follow-through on the break of the downward trend-line off of the November highs from the day  prior. 
  • VIX testing the recent lows from back in late October on the VIX, which only represented a few days prior to the October rally topping out officially. 
  • The market is starting to feel like a hot craps roll right now. How long that can last is anyone’s guess, but when it stops, you’ll likely see the masses quickly flee. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) hasn’t move nearly the entire month, remaining flatlined in the upper 80’s. 
  • Today will mark the end to one of the most volatile quarters the market has ever seen, and the first time since 1933 that the market has dropped over 10% and finished in the green in the same quarter – that is as long as 2044 holds today. 
  • Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 
  • Support continues to come in on any and all tests of the 10-day moving average. markets yellen dovish
  • Oil continues to weaken, with USO dropping six straight sessions and seven of the last eight. The drop off of recent highs has had little consequence for the market. 
  • Everything above SPX 2040 poses a lot of resistance for the market. However, the market’s behavior and strength in late, suggests that price action will be able to push through. 
  • It is very possible right now, that we continue to rally into May before the market sees any strong renewed selling interest, much like the case of 2008 where a similar event took place before the rest of the year was mired in heavy selling. 

My Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 3-31-16

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