• SP 500 Market Analysis 10-30-15

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX retraced a shade yesterday to close right underneath the recent rally highs. 
  • October has been on fire this month – as November approaches it wouldn’t at all be surprising for the next month to consolidate some or see profit taking. 
  • SPX has yet to flatten its trend-line at all off of the September lows, instead keeping a very steep uptrend in place. 
  • SPY volume was weak yesterday and well below average. 
  • VIX rose a slight bit, up 2% to 14.61. 
  • Consolidation on the 30 minute chart of SPX, right at the rally highs. 
  • Look for the 200-day moving average to offer a strong level of support going forward. 
  • SPX continues to trend nicely higher just underneath the upward Bollinger Band. 
  • Market now setup for a possible test of all-time highs, when less then a month ago it was trading at 1871. Kind of insane really. 
  • Some pundits think that the Fed has opened the door to a rate hike in December. I’m not buying it. 
  • This market is a perfect example of how an overbought market can stay overbought far longer than one might expect. 
  • VIX dropped another 7.1% down to 14.33. I expect at some point for VIX to test the 11-12 range before ultimately seeing any real selling pressures. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) is still trading in a consolidated range. 
  • Seasonally this is the strongest time for the stock market so a major rally like what we are seeing, is no big surprise and not at all uncommon. 
  • Ultimately, price on SPX is entering a range that has notoriously been difficult trading for most and one that vacillates consistently within a narrow range. 
  • 10-day moving average continues to be a strong barometer of market direction – a close below it would represent a short-term reversal. 


My Trades:

  • Added one new long position yesterday. 
  • Closed out MSI yesterday at 70.24 for a 0.1% loss. 
  • 40% Long / 10% Short / 50% Cash
  • Remain long: DIS at $105.88, RY at $57.64, AAPL at $117.50
  • Remain short: BBY at $34.49.
  • Will look to add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today.
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 10-30-15

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