Technical Outlook:

  • Strong open yesterday that was erased gradually as the day wore on resulting in a lower close. 
  • SPX dropped below the 20-day moving average again. 
  • Declining trend-line off of last July’s highs remains a continuous level of support for the market.
  • Possibility that the price action over the last two weeks has formed a bull flag.
  • 30 minute chart looks highly distributive and lends itself to the idea that it is trying to rollover.
  • Volume dropped off on SPY for a second straight day and was well below average.
  • The 5-day moving average is close a downward cross of the 20-day moving average, which hasn’t been seen since mid-February.  
  • VIX looking close to breaking out of its current base. 
  • Two key price levels to watch today – 1) The Friday lows from last week. 2) The lows from March 24th. Particularly, if the latter should break, it would put in a lower-low into the downtrend. 
  • Between 2040 and the all-time highs the price action is very congested with plenty of resistance. 
  • April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years. 
  • Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

  • Did not place any trades yesterday. 
  • Did not close out any swing-trades yesterday. 
  • Currently 10% Long / 20% Short / 70% Cash
  • Remain long TLT at $129.52, SPXU at $29.07 (an ETF short play).
  • Will look to add short or long exposure here today depending on the direction the market decides to take. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

spx 4-12-16

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