• SP 500 Market Analysis 10-15-15

Technical Outlook:

  • Yesterday marked the second day of selling for SPX, pulling back to the 50 day moving average which it managed to test and hold. 
  • SPX pulled back to the breakout level of the double bottom yesterday. 
  • In order to jump-start the next leg up for the market, SPX is going to need to close above 2021. 
  • Volume on SPY was below average but increased over the past two trading sessions. 
  • On the daily chart of VIX there is heavy reistance at 20.
  • VIX rose another 2% yesterday to 18.03.
  • Price action on lowering future revenue expectations with Walmart (WMT) weighed heavily on retail stocks. 
  • Resistance in the 2040’s is expected to be a difficult challenge for SPX going forward. 
  • Weekly Chart of SPX suggests that it needs to close over 2020 this week to clear resistance at that price level. 
  • 30-minute chart of SPX is showing distribution taking place. 
  • The low-volume sell-off on the SPY suggests that this pullback we saw yesterday is being conducted in an orderly manner with no real signs of panic.
  • Ultimately, I wouldn’t be surprised if the current rally in equities continues until VIX goes sub-11 again. 
  • 2059 is the break-even level for the market on the year. It also happens to be where the 200-day moving average is sitting at. 
  • The Fed has never raised interest rates at a point where the market was trading lower on the year. 


My Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 10-15-15

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