Fuinhaz $SPY read for January 23 2013

$SPY pretty much flat and just shy of another break out level on my charts. One thing that I want to point out is that the $NYMO (McClellan Oscillator) is just a few small points of being on the overbought territory. Also another piece of information is that the $FXY (Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust) is starting to move up again which makes it hard to believe that this rally can continue to thrive without any imminent pullback. My only concern, and reason why I can’t press on the idea of shorting is the $XLF (

In order for this pullback to begin we need to see 3 factors.

1. The $NYMO needs to close above the overbought territory.

2. The $FXY needs to continue to do what it is doing and continue to push higher. That is one of the early signs that the top is coming.

3. The $XLF needs to drop under 17.20 (which also represents the early move that things are in need of some air). A move below 16.74 confirms that we are going to have a serious pullback. One that will fill some of the gaps left behind.

Now the extra piece of information since I want my readers to have all the levels possible, to make the best decisions.

What will make this market continue to run.

1. The $NYMO can stay in the overbought territory for a couple of days. I have seen cases where it stayed over the overbought territory for 5 days max, but eventually come down, and with a vengeance. (remember as I am writing this, it have not crossed over yet.)

2. The $FXY starts to lose steam and crosses under the 110.15 support (hard to happen, but when the move starts it can last for months).

3. The $XLF can retest the 17.20 and become a strong support, an the move towards the 21.10 – 22.10 levels starts and this one can last up to 6 months.

Now let’s go to today’s numbers.

$SPY 1st support is 148.44, 2nd support 147.79,and 3rd is 147.38.