Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading -1.2% lower.
  • Asian markets traded -2.1% lower.
  • US futures are moderately lower ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), ADP Employment Report (8:15am), Productivity and Costs (8:30am), Factory Orders (10am), ISM Non Manufacturing Index (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Beige Book (2pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX for the second straight day tested the rising trend-line off of the November lows and bounced off of it.
  • This morning we are looking at possibly seeing price dip below this rising support level. 
  • Moderate gap downs are very difficult for the bears to hold on and most times results in the dip buyers flooding the market after the first hour of trading
  • The only other time we dipped below the rising trend-line off of the November lows was on 4/18 and we went on a tear immediately there after, putting together the market’s best short-term run for 2013. 
  • We are oversold on the SPX for the first time this year – for all of 2013 any time we have gotten close to the oversold level, it has led to an immediate bounce. 
  • Below the 1628 level, the next key support level comes in at 1601. 
  • We still have yet to see a pullback in excess of 4% since October/November of last year. 
  • The Dow’s streak of 20 straight Tuesdays finishing higher than the previous day was snapped yesterday. 
  • Volume remains elevated over the last three trading sessions. 
  • Assuming that recent history holds, I expect that we will rally higher from here after breaking key support levels on Friday – just as we’ve seen on three previous occasions. 
  • My bias for trading continues to remain to the long side. 
  • We’ve seen three pullbacks besides the current one since the November lows were established. All three had a moment where key support was broken, only for the SPX to bounce each time the following day and resume the upward climb. 
  • 30-minute chart is starting to form a bullish wedge worth taking note of. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • No new positions added yesterday; want to see this market takes its course and bottom first before doing so. 
  • May look to add a new position or two if the market can show me a decisive bounce today. 
  • Long HLIT at 6.08, HUM at $80.60, AMZN at $267.21, CF at $191.35, APA at $84.95, KSS at $51.83
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-05-13

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