Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- European markets are trading -1.2% lower.
- Asian markets traded -2.1% lower.
- US futures are moderately lower ahead of the bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), ADP Employment Report (8:15am), Productivity and Costs (8:30am), Factory Orders (10am), ISM Non Manufacturing Index (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Beige Book (2pm)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- SPX for the second straight day tested the rising trend-line off of the November lows and bounced off of it.
- This morning we are looking at possibly seeing price dip below this rising support level.
- Moderate gap downs are very difficult for the bears to hold on and most times results in the dip buyers flooding the market after the first hour of trading.
- The only other time we dipped below the rising trend-line off of the November lows was on 4/18 and we went on a tear immediately there after, putting together the market’s best short-term run for 2013.
- We are oversold on the SPX for the first time this year – for all of 2013 any time we have gotten close to the oversold level, it has led to an immediate bounce.
- Below the 1628 level, the next key support level comes in at 1601.
- We still have yet to see a pullback in excess of 4% since October/November of last year.
- The Dow’s streak of 20 straight Tuesdays finishing higher than the previous day was snapped yesterday.
- Volume remains elevated over the last three trading sessions.
- Assuming that recent history holds, I expect that we will rally higher from here after breaking key support levels on Friday – just as we’ve seen on three previous occasions.
- My bias for trading continues to remain to the long side.
- We’ve seen three pullbacks besides the current one since the November lows were established. All three had a moment where key support was broken, only for the SPX to bounce each time the following day and resume the upward climb.
- 30-minute chart is starting to form a bullish wedge worth taking note of.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
My Opinions & Trades:
- No new positions added yesterday; want to see this market takes its course and bottom first before doing so.
- May look to add a new position or two if the market can show me a decisive bounce today.
- Long HLIT at 6.08, HUM at $80.60, AMZN at $267.21, CF at $191.35, APA at $84.95, KSS at $51.83
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:


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