Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.2% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.9% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
PPI-FD (8:30), Empire State Manufacturing (8:30), Treasury International Capital (9), Industrial Production (9:15), Consumer Sentiment (9:55), E-Commerce Retail Sales (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX closed right at resistance at 1954 yesterday. 
  • SPX poised to gap through resistance in the 1950’s today which is huge for the bulls. 
  • Strong likelihood that this rally now becomes much more than a simple dead cat bounce
  • We have more or less plodded higher and haven’t seen any significant squeezes on the bear side, which makes me think we are still likely to see another solid pop in this market still. 
  • Inverse head and shoulders pattern that I mentioned yesterday is playing out perfectly so far on the SPX 30 minute chart. 
  • Russell is going to gap above the 200-day moving average today. 
  • Gaps above significant levels of resistance is fairly common and often a good sign that the market intends to market much higher going forward. 
  • The type of shock news that we saw drive this market down before, is now having little to no effect on it. 
  • Volume has been much lighter of late, particularly during the recent bounce. 
  • A move below 1928 would complicate things greatly for the bulls. 
  • Ultimately, the main goal for the bears going forward should be to get price back below 1904. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

  • Did not add any new positions to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • Remain long EBAY at 51.75, GPK at 12.00, AAPL at 95.56, FB at 72.53, ESRX at 71.01, UA at 69.10, STLD at 21.95
  • Will look to add 1-2 new long positions
  • 70% Long / 30% Cash
  • Covered AAL hedge at 38.51 for a 2.9% loss. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 8-15-14

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