Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

• European markets are trading -1.8% lower.
• Asian markets traded in a very wide and mixed range – down on average -0.5%.
• US futures are down in excess of 20 points on the S&P ahead of the open. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Employment Situation (8:30am), International Trade (8:30am), Consumer Credit (3pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• Today’s sell-off at the open looks to take us below the previous consolidation range that we had been trading in weeks prior. If we close below this level, that would be bearish. 
• It is very difficult though for the bears to hold on to extreme gap downs in the market. Eight times out of ten they let it slip away, and the dip buyers allow the market to recover to a certain extent off of the lows. 
• I’d give the market a good hour of trading before considering any new trades today. 
• Watch for divergences in the VIX for a possible dip-buy/market reversal off of the lows. 
• A close below 1538 would result in a more extended pullback. 
• 1530 represents the bottom of the rising channel that started back in November. 
• Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
• Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
• Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
• We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

• Bought BWLD at $87.95 yesterday.
• Bought ENI at $19.17 yesterday.
• Remain Long AAP at $81.66, CRI at $58.30
• Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX: