Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- European markets are trading 0.4% higher.
- Asian markets traded -1.1% lower.
- US futures are moderately lower ahead of the bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Quarterly Services Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Treasury STRIPS (3pm)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- One of the bigger sell-offs of the year yesterday firmly planted us into oversold territory for the first time this year.
- Of greater consequence is the break in the long-term trend-line off of the November lows.
- Last time a break in the trend-line occurred, we bounced hard and fast to new all-time highs.
- We also bounced previously on the first retest of the 50-day moving average. We are about 4 points away from testing this moving average.
- Key support rests at 1601.
- This pullback has been much more significant than anything else we have seen of late: first time we’ve seen a pullback in excess of 4% since October/November.
- 30-minute chart shows a perpetual sell-off marked by lower-lows and lower-highs.
- VIX currently at 17.50 and at a place where the last two reversals have taken place.
- Volume remains elevated over the last three trading sessions.
- We’ve seen three pullbacks besides the current one since the November lows were established. All three had a moment where key support was broken, only for the SPX to bounce each time the following day and resume the upward climb.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Added SLW at $24.29
- May look to add a new position or two if the market can show me a decisive bounce today.
- Long HLIT at 6.08, HUM at $80.60, AMZN at $267.21, CF at $191.35, APA at $84.95, KSS at $51.83
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:
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