Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.4% higher.
  • Asian markets traded -1.1% lower.
  • US futures are moderately lower ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Quarterly Services Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Treasury STRIPS (3pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • One of the bigger sell-offs of the year yesterday firmly planted us into oversold territory for the first time this year. 
  • Of greater consequence is the break in the long-term trend-line off of the November lows. 
  • Last time a break in the trend-line occurred, we bounced hard and fast to new all-time highs. 
  • We also bounced previously on the first retest of the 50-day moving average. We are about 4 points away from testing this moving average. 
  • Key support rests at 1601. 
  • This pullback has been much more significant than anything else we have seen of late: first time we’ve seen a pullback in excess of 4% since October/November. 
  • 30-minute chart shows a perpetual sell-off marked by lower-lows and lower-highs. 
  • VIX currently at 17.50 and at a place where the last two reversals have taken place. 
  • Volume remains elevated over the last three trading sessions. 
  • We’ve seen three pullbacks besides the current one since the November lows were established. All three had a moment where key support was broken, only for the SPX to bounce each time the following day and resume the upward climb. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Added SLW at $24.29
  • May look to add a new position or two if the market can show me a decisive bounce today. 
  • Long HLIT at 6.08, HUM at $80.60, AMZN at $267.21, CF at $191.35, APA at $84.95, KSS at $51.83
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-06-13

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