Technical Outlook:

  • Despite a late day sell-off that took a third of the market gains on SPX, yesterday showed significant strength in breaking the descending trend-line off of the March Highs.  
  • Ideally though, it would have been far better if SPX could have closed above 2108 which also marks the previous higher-low from 3/20 and as a result would have created new higher-highs for traders to get behind. 
  • Precarious situation for bulls this morning, where SPX is gapping down in a much more aggressive manner than what we have seen of late. It will be absolutely crucial that they stem the losses, and create manageable losses, or push the market back into the green. 
  • A significant sell-off in excess of 15-20 points on SPX would be crippling for the bulls and create new conversations of renewed selling. 
  • SPX needs to hold 2083 on 30 minute chart to avoid a lower-low. 
  • VIX sitting right at the 12.84 mark which also represents key support in recent weeks and an area where bears have managed to sell off the market repeatedly on the indices. 
  • Volume was much stronger yesterday than what we have seen in the past couple of weeks. 
  • The price moves of late aren’t as as big as we have become used to seeing. The volatility has dropped off significantly. 
  • This is strongest/most bullish market that we’ve seen since early February. 
  • The convergence of the 5, 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages is a perfect example of how non-directional this market has been over the course of this year until last week. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

  • Added two new long position yesterday.
  • Closed ut FB yesterday at $82.33 for a 1.1% loss. 
  • 60% long / 40% cash. 
  • I’ll consider adding 1-2 new long positions today dependent on the strength of today’s price action. 
  • Remain long: UPRO at 132.12, AAPL at 126.81, ETN at 68.88, CBI at 50.63.
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 4-16-15

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