Today’s Trading Plan: Hold The 200

Technical Outlook:

• 200-Day moving average was tested right out of the gate yesterday and was held perfectly. 
• Gap up this morning will be critical for the bulls to hold and build upon if they are going to attract buyers to get in on the dip here. 
• Five straight days of selling on SPX that hasn’t been seen since January of this year. Be very careful of the dead cat bounce if you are short here. 
• Even with the sell-off of late, SPX still remains range bound and directionless, with the best opportunities (and only) coming from timing the tops and bottoms of each short-term reversal. 
• Volume has come in higher each of the two trading sessions – which was lacking on the initial first 3-days of the sell-off. 
• This is not a point where you wan to start initiating new short positions. If you have been short, you will want to look at protecting gains. 
• What has seemed to me to be lacking in this sell-off is a true sense of fear, as evident by the lack of any true spike in volume and notable move in VIX (currently under 16). 
• FOMC meeting starts today with a statement tomorrow at 2pm. 
• T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) dropped 9.7% down to 25% yesterday. 
• My biggest ongoing concern with the market right now is the inability to establish new, clear-cut all-time highs that leads to an expansion of price as well. Instead SPX gets bogged down in the 2120-2130’s range and reverses course each time. 

My Trades:

• Did not add any new positions yesterday. 
• Closed out JAH yesterday for a 3.1% loss.  
• 30% Long / 70% cash. 
• Remain long: COST at 144.57, AAPL at 124.35, UPRO at 68.26. 
• If the market shows a willingness to start moving higher again today, I’ll add 1-2 new positions.
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: