Why am I not getting long you ask?
We have literally sold off the past five times that we have gotten right up against or barely established new all-time highs. Today $SPY is showing one of its lowest volume readings probably in years. If the market is serious about some major price expansion, the volume levels would be at least near average levels of the past 20 or so days, but it isn’t. It isn’t even likely to be half of that today.
I don’t mind day-trading this market, but even that has its problems, because of the lack of desire beyond the overnight futures price action to produce any meaningful moves during regular trading hours.
Let’s say that I am wrong and the market sees new all-time highs and respectable volume flow back into this market, then great, I can simply go long and if the market sustains itself, it will still offer incredible trading opportunities. But if it doesn’t, and with the lack of any major buyers, this market could drop 5-10% in the blink of an eye.
The reward is, despite the fact we have seen $SPX rally six out of the last nine days, to the downside. Risk is heavily stacked against anyone betting for a big move to the upside.
Not saying it can’t happen, but what evidence do we currently have that it will happen?
Since January 2018, this market hasn’t done squat.
All that said, it doesn’t mean there aren’t any decent setups out there, I just simply don’t trust the market enough to play them, but companies like Apple (AAPL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have made for some very exciting plays. The latter of which was one of the trade setups recently posted in the Splash Zone.
Take a look at the bullish watch-list below:
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