• SP 500 Market Analysis 9-11-12

Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

  • European markets are trading -0.2% lower. 
  • Asian markets finished mixed but overall -0.3% lower. 
  • US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Credit (3pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • We got a pullback yesterday, that after two huge days of cumulative gains. 
  • Friday’s action was completely outside of the upper Bollinger band (2 std devs), which is highly unusual for the markets, and usually follows with a pullback. 
  • Yesterday’s sell-off puts us back inside that upper Bollinger band which is where we should be trading. 
  • If we continue to pullback today, look for some dip buying opportunities around 1419. 
  • We are overbought as of yesterday’s close. 
  • Volume has declined slightly over the past two trading sessions. 
  • Test at 1440 resistance is in play today. While there isn’t a lot of resistance overhead, this is a minor resistance level worth noting. 
  • The 10-day moving average is back above the 20-day moving average. 
  • SharePlanner Reversal Indicator shows a bearish divergence which is worth noting. 
  • FOMC Statement occurs on an unusual Thursday at 12:30pm est (typically Tuesday or Wednesday). 
  • Long-term uptrend support off of the 6/4 lows now shows support at 1396.
  • 30-min chart shows a nice uptrend now in place with higher-highs and higher-lows. 
  • VIX surged yesterday and now back above 16. 
  • One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
  • If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.  

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Number of trades taken yesterday. 
  • Closed AMZN at $257.20 from $233.90 (7/27) for a 10% gain. 
  • Day-traded MCP yesterday: sold at $12.05 from $12.48 for a -3.45% loss. 
  • Bought ALXA at $4.83
  • Looking to add 1-2 new positions today.
  • Current stop-losses have been adjusted across the board. 
  • ALXN stop-loss moved up to $107.50
  • CROX stop-loss moved up to $17.75
  • Stop-loss for FBHS at $25.60.
  • Remain long CROX at $17.39, V at $127.18, FBHS at $24.54, and ALXN at $102.53
  • Track my portfolio RealTime here. 

Charts:

SP 500 Market Analysis 9-11-12

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