Trading Plan for September 10, 2012

Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

• European markets are trading flat. 
• Asian markets finished flat/mixed. 
• US futures are trading slightly lower ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Credit (3pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• SPX continues to throttle higher, making new recovery highs, and the highest in four-years. 
• Test at 1440 resistance is in play today. While there isn’t a lot of resistance overhead, this is a minor resistance level worth noting. 
• The 10-day moving average is back above the 20-day moving average. 
• The two day move that we’ve seen in the markets, and in particular SPX, is a bit extreme, and doubtful we see much more upside until some profit-taking occurs. 
• 2 Trading Sessions = 34 points on SPX
• When you get a huge breakout like what you saw on Thursday and Friday last week, the momentum tends to last no more than 3 days. At that point, you’re inevitably going to see a pullback – this is normal, and not necessarily a ‘bad-thing’. 
• Volume over the past week of trading has been better than the levels we’d been accustomed to over the past few weeks prior. 
• Short-term, the SPX is getting near the overbought levels again. 
• FOMC Statement occurs on an unusual Thursday at 12:30pm est (typically Tuesday or Wednesday). 
• Long-term uptrend support off of the 6/4 lows now shows support at 1394.
• 30-min chart shows a strong breakout underway. 
• VIX dropped hard and is back below 15. 
• One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
• If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.  

My Opinions & Trades:

• No trades taken on Friday. 
• Looking to add 1-2 new positions today.
• Strongly considering taking gains in AMZN today with price outside of upper Bollinger-Band
• Current stop-losses have been adjusted across the board. 
• Stop-loss in AMZN moved up to $249.00.
• ALXN stop-loss moved up to $107.50
• CROX stop-loss moved up to $17.70
• Stop-loss for FBHS at $25.50.
• Remain long CROX at $17.39, V at $127.18, FBHS at $24.54, ALXN at $102.53, and AMZN at $233.90. 
• Track my portfolio RealTime here. 

Charts: