Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses):
TICC (9.48), BRKR (12.95), CVX (76.89), DAL (11.05), ELY (6.39), ITW (44.45), SSO (38.03), QQQQ (48.06)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): LMT (76.35)
BIAS: 73% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Farm Prices 3pm).
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures are mixed.
- The 1150 level on the S&P is becoming a huge hindrance for the bulls now. Currently 0 for 3. Another test today is likely in the cards.
- Important for the bulls to push through 1150, or their 3-day highs as it could spur on another round of short-covering. Russell 2000 was the only major index to do this.
- Volatility could increase as we approach the end-of-quarter.
- Last 5 quarter-end days have resulted in negative returns. Last positive day was March ’09.
- Only 1 of the past 4 quarter-end weeks have had bullish returns (3 out of 6 dating back to January ’09)
- If the bulls can break through 1150, next step would be 1173.
- Bears need to push this market below 1131 and ultimately 1122.
- Hanging Man candle pattern yesterday is a bit of a concern for the bulls – bearish signal?
- Asian markets finished in the green and European are slightly negative.
- Thursday could set up to be a wild day with GDP and Jobless Claims due.
Actions I Will Be Taking:
- I held off from buying any additional long positions yesterday, and will do so again today. I want to see how this market plays out in the short-term first.
- Raised the stop-loss in TICC to $9.49. Looking at 18% worth of gains right now along with a 2.2% dividend payout earlier this month.
- Becoming a bit weary of intraday hedge positions covering myself if the market goes lower due to the willingness of the bulls to continue buying dips.
- Any gap up/down this morning should represent a good fading opportunity, barring any significant news.