Trading Plan for July 26, 2012

Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern):

• European markets are trading over 2.3% higher. 
• Asian markets traded between 0.1% and 1.2% higher. 
• US futures are up over 1% going into the open. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Durable Goods Orders (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), Pending Home Sales Index (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• Despite another attempt to drive the markets lower, SPX managed to rebound and close near break even. 
• 50-day moving average showing solid support over the past two trading sessions. 
• At this point, SPX hasn’t actually put in a ‘lower-low’ yet, and is therefore still in an uptrend overall. 
• Because of this, you want to be careful about how bearish you get until there is a legitimate breakdown in the market and not merely a pullback (which is what recent selling is at this point). 
• 30-min SPX chart shows a double top followed by a bear-flag of late. 
• Double top-formation coming together on SPX that could pose as trouble in the days ahead if confirmed with a close below 1334. 
• Approaching short-term oversold, but intermediate and longer-term is no-where near such a reading. 
• Bulls must hold 1325. A close below that level, and you have what would begin a new downtrend. 
• On 7/18 we managed to break through the descending trend-line off of the 4/2 highs. 
• Watch the SPRI that I posted this past Sunday and how it shows us near-ready for the reversal signal. 
• Also note the price resistance the SPX is up against on the weekly chart. 
• VIX pushed  back below 20, but remains slightly elevated at this point. 

My Opinions & Trades:

• Day-traded PZG and sold at $2.38 from $2.39 for a 0.4% loss. 
• Sold AMTD at $15.48 from $15.35 for a 0.9% gain. 
• Sold GS at $95.25 from $94.02 for a 1.3% gain. 
• Bought HES yesterday at 45.60
• Shorted MWV at $28.50

Charts: