Trading Plan for August 6, 2010

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): XLF (14.02), V (68.99), INTC (19.75)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 42% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Employment Situation (8:30am), Consumer Credit (3pm)

My Observations and What to Expect:

• Futures slightly higher.
• Employment will weigh heavily on the market today. Futures likely to do little until then.
• Last employment report saw some pretty wild swings after the release, only to finish lower on the day.
• Price action looks poised to break through the critical 1130 level. Should be no problem with a good employment report.
• If we break through 1130, I think we’ll see a nasty short-squeeze as a result of a lot of stops being placed just above that price level.
• Impressed with the consolidation just above the 200-day moving average recently. 
• Don’t be fooled by initial market reaction to the employment report – not always indicative of how the day will go.
• Dip buyers are buying up anything that sells.
• Employment might be the last great hope of the bears to push this market lower for the year. If the bulls push above 1130, I think the bears are done for the year.

Actions I Will Be Taking:

• A few stocks on the radar like TICC, that I’d like to jump into on any pullback.
• Market is in overbought territory still – and heavily so since mid-July, so caution is warranted right now.
• Muted market reaction to the employment report will be cause for fading any gap at the open.
• Will scalp on a limited basis.