Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses):
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): SPY (108.68), DGX (47.10), FCN (35.01), URBN (32.73), OMI (27.76),
HSY (48.02), ADBE (29.78), DDS (22.78)
BIAS: 52% Short
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Personal Income and Outlays (8:30am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures are just slightly positive, despite being up almost 1% early on. Continuous selling since.
- Big Report this week will be the employment number on Friday.
- Worst case for the bulls today, would be if they gave up Friday’s gains. Would inevitably lead to much more selling in the days ahead.
- Worst near-term scenario for the bears if they give up 1100 on the S&P. Hardly likely to happen today though.
- Closest Resistance level is at 1067. Should be difficult for the bulls to close above it.
- 50-day moving average is an additional resistance level for the bulls as well.
- Personal Income and Outlays report this morning should have a moderate impact on the markets early on.
Actions I Will Be Taking:
- Portfolio is not hedged at all this morning.
- Should follow-through from Friday’s rally occur, I will look to put a new hedge position on with SSO during an intra-day pullback.
- Possible that I may add one additional position to the portfolio to get closer to 60% vested to short side.
- Sold HSY at the Friday close for a small profit. M&A chatter was picking up.
- If there is a sizable gap-up, may make for a high probability fill considering market behavior this morning.
- If today is a trendless day, I will focus on scalping trades, using fading techniques against market extremes.
- Lowered stop-loss on URBN to $32.73 to lock in additional profits.
- I will use ETF’s, in particular 3x ultras, to fade market extremes today, if we are in a trendless market today, to scalp for intra-day profits.