Trading Plan for April 11, 2011

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): F (15.14)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 10% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): None

My Observations and What to Expect:

• Futures are slightly up heading into the open.
• Asian and European markets were or currently are trading slightly down. 
• The S&P closed just a smidgen above the 10-day moving average. As has been the case for a while now, the ability of the S&P to stay close above this MA has determined the short-term health of this market.
• The range of 1338-1340 continues to act as a significant resistance level on the S&P. Each time it is broached, results in a significant amount of intraday selling. On Friday we saw a sell off of about 18 points from the intraday highs to lows.
• Should we breach the 10-day MA and more importantly, Friday’s lows, I believe we’ll see a move at least back down to 1310.
• Close above 1340 today, and it is likely we’ll see a move to the recent highs and beyond. A likely short-squeeze would occur.
• Oil’s continue rise, will cripple the recovery – $4 gas will halt consumer spending, and increase prices across the board. Expect every uptick in the price of oil to greatly hamper the market’s upward ability. If the market wants to continue pushing higher, there needs to be a substantial pull-back in oil.
• We have seen consolidation in the markets for the past six days. We are poised for a move in one direction or the other – and we’ll see it occur in a significant way.
• Volume has remained below average now for about three weeks.
• My conclusion: Oil retreats or we’ll see a nasty pullback in the days ahead. We are at that cross-roads.

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

• On Friday, closed out SVU at $9.38 for 3.2% gain, GFI at $18.65 for 1.8% gain, HD at $37.48 for -0.3% loss, AAPL at $336.19 for a 0.6% loss. 
• Bought F on Friday’s close at 15.36. Considered a short-term position.
• Will look to add aditional long positions to the portfolio, but will not hold them but 1-2 days at most. I’m taking quick profits in this market.
• Much attention  will be placed on oil and whether it continues to rise or not.
• Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas (as well as everyone else’s).