Today’s Trading Plan: Whether FOMC is Patient

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• SPX tested 2065 yesterday and held on to its support perfectly before bouncing and eliminating over half the day’s losses. 
• Choppy and difficult market for trading. Nonetheless, after the strength of the two previous market rallies, the direction still appears to be pointing upward. 
• Any action out of the market today is somewhat irrelevant until the 2pm FOMC Statement is released. 
• Everything about today’s FOMC Statement revolves around whether the word “Patient” is dropped from the wording used. 
• Expect some wild swings following the release and with the press conference right afterwards, she could also say something that creates additional swings. 
• Often times the first move following the FOMC Statement is a false move. Keep that in mind. 
• VIX rose only 0.3% to 15.66. 
• T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day MA) continues to coil tightly at 45.4%. 
• This market is unbelievably sketchy, and loading up on lots of positions in either direction is ill-advised. The choppiness is a profit killer. 
• Ideally for the bulls, they need to establish some follow through, because the market of late has had a difficult time establishing a move in either direction without an equal counter-move. 
• Plenty of uncertainty in the market short-term. Euro and oil are major players in the market’s direction currently.
• Oil remains extremely volatile and becoming more so each and every day. Very difficult to trade – as are the oil stocks. 
• The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Trades:

• Did not sell any positions yesterday. 
• Added one new position yesterday. 
• Will look to add new long positions today following a favorable response from FOMC Statement, but nothing before then. 
• 30% long. 
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: