• SP 500 Market Analysis 11-12-15

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX down in the pre market following some comments out of Bullard that was perceived as being hawkish, and of course bearish for the market and stocks. 
  • The 200-day moving average is the key level to watch here today. The 20-day moving average will be broken immediately at the market open. I am not so much concerned with an intraday break below the 200-day moving average as much as I am about a close below it. 
  • Break-even level for the market will be tested today at 2059. Also worth noting is that the Fed has never raised rates when the market is down year-to-date. 
  • Today will mark the sixth day in the last seven trading sessions where SPX has pushed lower. The bears at this point are due for a short squeeze of some kind. 
  • VIX rose sharply yesterday, back above 16, and just below the 200-day moving average. 
  • Watch for the T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) to make a break below 55% today – that would allow for the indicator to break below the range it has been trading in for well over a month now. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart will look to confirm the head and shoulders patter that it has been forming for the past few weeks now. Confirmation is at 2070. 
  • SPY volume was very light yesterday due mainly to the Veteran’s Day Holiday. 
  • A rate hike is expected out of December’s Fed meeting. However, I still would not be surprised if the Fed backed out of raising rates yet again. They’ve been doing just that for years now. 
  • Declining resistance off of the May highs at 2119-2120 continues to play as a force in this market. So far, price has been unable to break through this. 


My Trades:

  • Did not add any new positions to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • Closed out IWM yesterday at $117.31 for a 0.6% loss. 
  • 60% Long / 60% Cash
  • Remain long: CRM at $79.25, FDX at $157.91, XLF at $24.44, UPRO at $65.55, FB at $107.34, and NFLX at $110.39
  • May add one additional position, but could also curb long exposure today depending on market action. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11-12-15

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