Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded mixed and flat.
  • European markets are trading 0.1% higher. 
  • US futures are trading flat ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Employment Situation (8:30), Redbook (8:55), Construction Spending (10), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX is heavily overextended at this juncture. Looking for consolidation or a very mild, light-volume pullback of 10-15 points. 
  • Yesterday’s price action was one of the first times in well over a month where the market displayed very little in the way of price action and movement. The lack of a catalyst was telling. 
  • Volume was average. 
  • VIX rose ever so slightly to 13.16 and is at the bottom of its recent range. 
  • 30-minute chart looks very strong, however the 5-minute chart has a head and shoulders pattern well underway. 
  • 8 out of 9 days the market has finished higher and bounced nearly 100 points, which furthers the likelihood of seeing some consolidation short-term. 
  • And when I’m speaking of consolidation it may only be a few days like what we saw from the rally off of the June lows and August lows. 
  • Very little in the way of head-winds for the market as Syria has left the spot-light, shut-downs, debt-ceiling are over with for now, and the most dovish Fed chairman poised to take the helm. 
  • Bulls need to continue to hold the rising trend-line off fo the November 2012 lows which currently rests at 1695. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:


  • Closed out GNW at 13.98 for a 9.1% gain. 
  • Closed out NWL at 28.98 for a 4.1% gain. 
  • Did not add any new positions on Monday.
  • I am primarily focused on trading to the long side going forward. 
  • Currently 30% long / 10% short / 60% cash.  
  • Current Longs: LYV at 18.80, CMI at 133.25, MWE at 70.20. 
  • Current Shorts: AXL at 19.08.
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 10-22-13

 

 

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