• dutch boy in the market crack

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX steadily increased in value all day yesterday, with hardly a sign of selling until the final hour of trading when it gave up nearly all of its gains on the day. dutch boy in the market crack
  • This creates a very concerning doji candle on the SPY right at the upper Bollinger Band extreme. 
  • It is very important to be aware of the potential for a strong pullback here and to manage your long position risk accordingly. 
  • Mario Draghi and ECB left rates unchanged. The impact on the market has been non-existent to this point. 
  • VIX was weak all day long trading below key support going back to July 2014. However, by the close it had reversed and recaptured support.
  • SPY 30 minute chart continues to put in place higher highs and higher lows.
  • Volume dropped off a bit yesterday on SPY and still below recent averages.
  • USO trying to breakout yet again, and crude is above $44/barrel (no news as of this post of Gartman throwing himself off a bridge).
  • For the bears, they need to get price action back below 2040 on SPX in order to establish a lower-low on SPX daily chart.  
  • Nasdaq stuck in a trading range over the last six trading sessions. 
  • Considering that in February the S&P 500 was down over 12% on the year, and two months later is looking at possibly making a run at new all-time highs is quite unfathomable and not something that should ever be deemed common place for the market. 
  • The market has been strong on the weekly chart rallying 7 out of the last 9 weeks and now looking to make it 8 out of the last 10.  
  • April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years. 
  • Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

  • Sold TLT yesterday at $129.53 for a 0.2% profit. 
  • Did not add any additional swing-trades to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • Currently 20% Short / 80% Cash
  • Remain long SPXU at $27.51 (short ETF).
  • Remain short QQQ at $110.40
  • Will cut the short positions and add new long exposure if the bears can not put together a move to the downside. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 4-21-16

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