Technical Outlook:
- SPX steadily increased in value all day yesterday, with hardly a sign of selling until the final hour of trading when it gave up nearly all of its gains on the day.
- This creates a very concerning doji candle on the SPY right at the upper Bollinger Band extreme.
- It is very important to be aware of the potential for a strong pullback here and to manage your long position risk accordingly.
- Mario Draghi and ECB left rates unchanged. The impact on the market has been non-existent to this point.
- VIX was weak all day long trading below key support going back to July 2014. However, by the close it had reversed and recaptured support.
- SPY 30 minute chart continues to put in place higher highs and higher lows.
- Volume dropped off a bit yesterday on SPY and still below recent averages.
- USO trying to breakout yet again, and crude is above $44/barrel (no news as of this post of Gartman throwing himself off a bridge).
- For the bears, they need to get price action back below 2040 on SPX in order to establish a lower-low on SPX daily chart.
- Nasdaq stuck in a trading range over the last six trading sessions.
- Considering that in February the S&P 500 was down over 12% on the year, and two months later is looking at possibly making a run at new all-time highs is quite unfathomable and not something that should ever be deemed common place for the market.
- The market has been strong on the weekly chart rallying 7 out of the last 9 weeks and now looking to make it 8 out of the last 10.
- April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years.
- Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows.
My Trades:
- Sold TLT yesterday at $129.53 for a 0.2% profit.
- Did not add any additional swing-trades to the portfolio yesterday.
- Currently 20% Short / 80% Cash
- Remain long SPXU at $27.51 (short ETF).
- Remain short QQQ at $110.40
- Will cut the short positions and add new long exposure if the bears can not put together a move to the downside.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
