Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.6% lower.
  • European markets are trading flat.
  • US futures are trading flat. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7), ADP Employment Report (8:15), GDP (8:30), Employment Cost Index (8:30), Treasury Refunding Announcement (8:30), Chicago PMI (9:45), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30), FOMC Meeting Announcement (2pm), Farm Prices (3pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Since last Friday the SPX has been in an extremely tight consolidation pattern, and a far broader one dating back to 7/12. 
  • Despite being in consolidation for a good portion of this month, it has provided the market a great opportunity to come off of the overbought levels and to cool off in the short-term. 
  • Between 1671 and 1676, which also corresponds with the previous all-time highs reached in May 2013, is providing the market with excellent support. 
  • With the FOMC Statement today, traders are very skittish about what might be said at 2pm. A lot of volatility should ensue. 
  • Don't be coerced into reacting to the initial move, or the second move. It is the third significant move out of the market that represents the true response to the Fed's FOMC Statement. 
  • After putting more than $2 trillion into this market, I highly doubt Bernanke wants to say some off-the-cuff remark in the statement that will crash the markets. It would wipe out everything he worked for. 
  • The one thing that has been near certain in this market over the last 3 days are the dip buyers consistently supporting and pushing the market off of the lows each day. 
  • We continue to see the typical light summer volume levels. 
  • So far the new trend-line off of the 6/24 lows connects its first higher-low with Friday's price action. This could change, but that is what we are working with at this point. 
  • VIX remained yesterday at 13.39. 
  • Inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the SPX  30-minute chart. 
  • I remain a buyer in this market. The opportunities to swing short are far too unpredictable, choosing to focus on the long side is the best way to manage risk and maximize profits at this juncture. 
  • With the consolidation at the highs, I think it is only a matter of time before we break the 1700 price level .
  • This uptrend looks nearly the same as the one we saw on 4/19 and lasted until 5/19. I'm curious if it will lead to a similar extended pullback as a result. 
  • Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Closed out BDX at 103.14 for a 3.2% gain. 
  • Closed out APO at 26.09 for a 2.8% loss. 
  • No new positions added yesterday. 
  • Current Longs: ASML at 89.63, RCI at 40.65, HRB at 30.19, SJM at 104.63, GOOG at 887.47, WHR at 130.74, XEC at 75.50. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

 

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