Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 2.3% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.1% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Redbook (8:55), PMI Services Index (9:45), Factory Orders (10), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Fourth straight day of selling, the first time we have seen that since December 2013. 
  • Strongest day of selling since 10/9/14.
  • The key for the bulls is to hold the rising trend-line off of the 10/15 lows. Today that trend-line is at 2021. 
  • Volume resumed back to normal levels yesterday and the highest since 12/19. 
  • Oil sell off yesterday of more than five percent was in large part responsible for yesterday’s market sell-off. As weakness continues in oil, it will likely weigh on the financial markets. 
  • There is a good chance you’ll see a dead cat bounce today. What the market does with it with determine direction going forward. 
  • VIX rose 12% to 19.92. 
  • While seemingly in need of a bounce, there is no sign yet of a base or bounce pattern forming on SPX 30 minute chart. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) followed the market sell-off finally, dropping 23.4% down to 38.8%. 
  • SPX cut right through the 20-day and 50-day moving average with no fight yesterday. 
  • Market is acting in a very similar manner to what we saw last year when the first two trading sessions of the year were decisively bearish. 
  • That whole saying about, “As January goes, so goes the year” has an 89.1% accuracy to it – obviously that didn’t apply to last year though. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:


Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 1-6-15

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