Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.4% higher. 
  • European markets are trading 0.1% higher. 
  • US futures are trading 0.2% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30), Gallup US Payroll to Population (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), Factory Orders (10), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • For the third straight day, the SPX bounced perfectly off of the 30-day moving average. This is a key price level going forward. 
  • Just below the 50-day moving average at 1679 is the rising trend-line off of the November 2012 lows that is now at 1676. 
  • It’s a tough call in this market right now in determining where it wants to go. The SharePlanner Reversal Indicator is playing heavily into my trading strategy, and the signals it is giving off suggests that this market is heading lower in the near future. 
  • A bounce can still push this market higher. But pushing above 1702 may be problematic. 
  • Stochastics are starting to show signs of some upward momentum. 
  • Don’t rule out the possibility of a lot choppiness and consolidation going forward. 
  • Volume remained average. 
  • VIX rose up to 16.60
  • Long-term I don’t believe a government shutdown hurts the market on its own.
  • If a compromise is reached, expect a significant bounce back. 
  • Confirmed Head and shoulders pattern on the SPX 30-minute chart still in play. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Closed out ACAS at $13.70 for a 2.1% gain. 
  • Added one long and one short position yesterday. 
  • I’m more interested at this point in thinning out my longs rather than adding to them. May also add another short position today. 
  • Currently 70% long / 10% short / 20% cash.  
  • Current Longs: RDC at 37.17, UHS at 73.85, MPEL at 31.59, CSE at 11.86, ITMN at 15.31, DKS at 53.87.
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 10-2-13

 

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