Pre-market update:
- Asian markets traded 0.6% higher.
- European markets are trading 0.2% lower.
- US futures are trading 0.1% higher ahead of the market open.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30), Existing Home Sales (8:30), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- 7 out of 8 days the market has finished higher and bounced nearly 100 points. I’d say there is a good chance to start seeing some consolidation short-term.
- And when I’m speaking of consolidation it may only be a few days like what we saw from the rally off of the June lows and August lows.
- A lot of economic data this week, including the delayed employment report tomorrow. I expect there to be more attention given to economic numbers going forward.
- But ultimately it’s the Fed that really matters.
- I trimed a large portion of my exposure to the long side and even added a short position on Friday, primarily because of how overextended this market is and how Friday’s candle is outside the upper Bollinger Band.
- Volume was very strong on Friday, but much of that had to do with Options Expiration .
- VIX finished the day at 13.08 yesterday, but what was alarming was the significant movement off of its lows in the afternoon.
- Strong uptrend in place on the SPX 30-minute chart.
- Bearish wedge as shown below has been busted through by the bulls.
- I expect the market to rally hard much in a similar fashion to what we saw off of the August lows and June lows.
- Very little in the way of head-winds for the market as Syria has left the spot-light, shut-downs, debt-ceiling are over with for now, and the most dovish Fed chairman poised to take the helm.
- Bulls need to continue to hold the rising trend-line off fo the November 2012 lows which currently rests at 1695.
- Markets don’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Closed out STNG at 11.25 for a 10.7% gain.
- Closed out ACAS at 14.21 for a 4.0% gain.
- Closed out FCX at 34.86 for a 3.1% gain.
- Added one new short position on Friday to act as a hedge for remaining positions.
- Willl tighten the stop-loss on all existing positions, and particlarly those with heavy profits.
- I am primarily focused on trading to the long side going forward.
- Currently 50% long / 10% short / 40% cash.
- Current Longs: GNW 12.82, LYV at 18.80, CMI at 133.25, NWL at 27.84.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:


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