Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- European markets are trading 0.5% higher.
- Asian markets traded 0.8% lower.
- US futures are trading moderately lower ahead of the opening bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): GDP (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Corporate Profits (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Just a reminder that the market is closed tomorrow.
- SPX has another major recovery off of the day’s lows. It has done the same thing again with overnight futures rebounding off of their lows.
- Market is unphased by economic reports, in particular GDP and Jobless claims missing.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
- SPX closed rigth at the highs of recent consolidation. A 2-3 point move today higher, and a breakout would be confirmed.
- Consolidation continues to be the theme on the daily. We need to see either a break to the upside of 1563, or a break to the downside of 1538 to determine the market’s next move.
- Volume continues to remain steady over the past week and a half of trading.
- VIX hovering in the 13’s.
- I don’t recommend using market bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions at this time.
- Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading.
- Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature.
- We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Sold SRPT yesterday at $35.30 for a $6.7% gain.
- Sold SLV at $27.33 for a -2.3% loss.
- Remain Long GG at $33.55, HOS at $44.92, BWLD at $86.53
- Remaining patient at these elevated price levels – not going to force position that aren’t there.
- Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance
Chart for SPX:


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