• S and P 500 Market Analysis 3-28-13

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.5% higher.
  • Asian markets traded 0.8% lower.
  • US futures are trading moderately lower ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): GDP (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Corporate Profits (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am) 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Just a reminder that the market is closed tomorrow. 
  • SPX has another major recovery off of the day’s lows. It has done the same thing again with overnight futures rebounding off of their lows. 
  • Market is unphased by economic reports, in particular GDP and Jobless claims missing. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • SPX closed rigth at the highs of recent consolidation. A 2-3 point move today higher, and a breakout would be confirmed. 
  • Consolidation continues to be the theme on the daily. We need to see either a break to the upside of 1563, or a break to the downside of 1538 to determine the market’s next move. 
  • Volume continues to remain steady over the past week and a half of trading. 
  • VIX hovering in the 13’s. 
  • I don’t recommend using market bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions at this time. 
  • Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Sold SRPT yesterday at $35.30 for a $6.7% gain. 
  • Sold SLV at $27.33 for a -2.3% loss. 
  • Remain Long GG at $33.55, HOS at $44.92, BWLD at $86.53
  • Remaining patient at these elevated price levels – not going to force position that aren’t there. 
  • Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 3-28-13

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