• SP 500 Market Analysis 8-13-14

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.5% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.5% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.3% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7), Retail Sales (8:30), Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (10), Business Inventories (10), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • A muted day of trading yesterday where the market simply consolidated the gains of the past two trading sessions. 
  • This could complicate matters for the bulls as the candle yesterday could form the starting point of a resumption of the selling that took place over the past few weeks. 
  • On a positive note, SPX maintains the 10-day moving average, but still well below the 20 and 50 day moving averages (which also just experienced a downside crossover yesterday). 
  • Some strength heading into the open where the bulls will have to make sure that they don’t give up yesterday’s lows at 1928. 
  • 30 minute chart on SPX suggests there is a bull flag in place. 
  • VIX dropped 0.7% down to 14.13. 
  • The main goal for the bears going forward should be to get price back below 1904. 
  • If price can get back into the 1950’s, I expect that to offer a fair amount of resistance. 
  • Volume is slacking off a bit, which is no surprise for yesterday considering the lack of any real direction. 
  • The market indicators still show conditions to be very oversold still. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

  • Added one short position to the portfolio as a hedge yesterday. 
  • Closed out WDC at 98.97 for a 3.1% loss. 
  • Remain long EBAY at 51.75, GPK at 12.00, AAPL at 95.56, FB at 72.53, ESRX at 71.01, UA at 69.10.
  • Will look to add 1-2 new long positions, or start a short position as a hedge if conditions warrant it. 
  • 60% Long / 10% Short / 30% Cash
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 8-13-14

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