Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

• European markets are trading -1.5% lower. 
• Asian markets traded mixed between -0.3% and +0.6%. 
• US futures are trading moderately lower, ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Factory Orders (10am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• SPX’s rally on Friday represented the biggest rally since 1/2 of this year. Both rallies came on the first of the trading month. 
• Friday’s rally created a new high for the markets and ended a two-day skid. 
• SPX also finding support at the 10-day moving average. 
• Surprisingly, we are seeing the greatest amount of weakness ahead of the opening bell that we’ve see all year long, due to weakness over seas. 
• Volume on Friday was slightly higher. 
• VIX plummeted as you might have expected dropping down to 12.9. 
• Watch the 1496 level on the SPX today, if price drops and closes below this level, it could usher in additional weakness for the markets. 
• Today’s weakness is coming on the heals of some worries of market action over seas which saw a notable sell-off today. 
• More so than the bulls, the bears have a very difficult time holding on to gap downs. They are often times bought up after the first hour of trading. 
• Short-term (but definitely not long-term) we’ve come off of oversold levels. 
• A pullback to 1470 would actually be a very healthy pullback area for this market and would help to cool the market off some before pushing back higher again. 
• This past January was the best we’ve seen since 1994. The best January in 19 years. 
• Be very careful about adding long positions to your portfolio today. This market is at major extremes on every noteworthy indicator. 
• At 1451, you have a significant inflection point for the markets. If the market pulls back and price dips below this price level, there is a significant gap to fill (on the SPY) and will likely see a push below 1430. 
• The channel that we are currently trading in looks very similar to the channel that we traded in last year from June through September. 
• Be aware of upcoming news events and discussions that will permeate the markets: Debt Ceiling Debate, Fiscal Cliff Part II, Employment Recovery. 

My Opinions & Trades:

• Closed/covered GM on Friday at $28.20 from $28.44 for a 0.8% gain. 
• Stopped out of INGR at $65.88 from $67.72 for a -2.7% loss. 
• Closed/covered TGT on Friday at $61.14 from $61.03 for a -0.2% loss. 
• Added SWHC long at $8.66
• Added DVA long at $116.72. 
• Remain Short GLW at $12.04.
• Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX: