Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.4% higher.
  • Asian markets traded mixed and in a broad range from -1.8% up to +0.7%. 
  • US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): International Trade (8:30am), Wholesale Trade (10am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Huge rally off of the morning lows yesterday, brought the SPX back to near break even yesterday. 
  • The last two days we’ve seen the dip buyers come back into this market.
  • This suggests this market, once it breaks out of the consolidation it is currently trading in, will be to the upside. 
  • Market quickly heading back into oversold territory yet again. 
  • A close below 1495 is really what the bears need in order to fuel the bearish fire. 
  • A break above Wednesday’s highs will likely lead to additional short-covering. 
  • We consolidated for a third straight day at/near the recent highs. 
  • Volume was slightly off yesterday. 
  • I am leaning more in the direction now that this market will likely push out of the recent consolidation to new 5-year highs. 
  • On the 30min chart of SPX the double top that was forming before looks much more messier today. More like consolidation now. 
  • The gappiness in both directions at the top of a major trend is not a healthy sign for the market. 
  • VIX back into the 13’s. 
  • Worries about European economies starting to re-emerge. 
  • The channel that we are currently trading in looks very similar to the channel that we traded in last year from June through September. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 2-8-13

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