• SP 500 Market Analysis 7-31-15

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX opened up weak  yesterday, but the dip buyers were quick to capture control of the market and allowed the indices to all finish in the green. 
  • The dip-buying from yesterday is a strong indicator that the bulls want to push the market higher in the short-term. 
  • Nasdaq is by far the best chart among the indices right now. Others are very much range bound, but the Nasdaq has established a higher-high and higher-low. If Apple (AAPL) can actually join this rally, which is a large % of the Nasdaq, the rally could really take off. 
  • The 30 minute chart of SPX looks very solid, but could form a much larger trend if it can break through 2130 and establish a higher-high. A higher-low has been made. 
  • VIX dropped 3% and back into the lower 12’s. A push into the high 11’s has been the reversal point for the market of late. Watch price action at this level for early clues. 
  • It becomes more likely that SPX is positioning itself for another test of all-time highs. 
  • Bears need to kill this rally, and the only way they can do that is by pushing the market back below Monday’s lows and the 200-day MA. 
  • At this point, I’m concerning myself with only one resistance level overhead and that is the 2129-2134 price level. That appears to be the dominant resistance level plaguing this market from moving higher and out of the current range. 
  • Even with the sell-off of late, SPX still remains range bound and directionless, with the best opportunities (and only) coming from timing the tops and bottoms of each short-term reversal. \
  • My biggest ongoing concern with the market right now is the inability to establish new, clear-cut all-time highs that leads to an expansion of price as well. Instead SPX gets bogged down in the 2120-2130’s range and reverses course each time. 


My Trades:

  • Added one new long position yesterday. 
  • Stopped out of AAPL at $121.93. 
  • 40% Long / 60% cash. 
  • Remain long: COST at 144.57, UPRO at 68.26, QLD at 77.84.
  • Will look to add 1-2 new positions today if the market continues to trend favorably. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-31-15

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