• SP 500 Market Analysis 4-1-15

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX going back and forth again with SPX losing most of the gains from Monday’s rally and again showing plenty of overnight weakness.
  • After selling off yesterday, it found support on the 5-day moving average that is likely going to be broken at the open today.
  • SPX futures overnight was wild, with futures dropping as low as 27 points at one point. Heading into the open, futures have recovered the large majority of those losses.
  • A drop below 2040 will drastically change the outlook of this market and create a strong bearish environment going forward.
  • You still have the lingering potential double top on the 30 minute chart of SPX but overall the price action there is very uncertain and choppy.
  • Yesterday’s price action on SPY took price action into Monday’s gap. Could very well see a gap fill on it today.
  • Volume was strong yesterday, though likely due to the end of month/end of quarter window dressing.
  • VIX was up a strong bit – 5.4% to 15.24. Having seen SPX down 3 out of the last 4 months, one would think VIX would be well over 20 but that is not the case here.
  • Oil looking to test recent lows once again.
  • April has been a very favorable month historical for the Dow – the best, in fact. 
  • Plenty of uncertainty remains in the market short-term. Euro and oil are major players in the market’s direction currently.
  • Oil remains extremely volatile and becoming more so each and every day. Very difficult to trade – as are the oil stocks. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

  • Added two new long positions yesterday.
  • Added one new short position yesterday.
  • Did not close any positions yesterday.
  • 20% long / 10% short / 70% cash. 
  • I’ll wait to see which direction the market takes today and adjust the portfolio accordingly.
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 4-1-15

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