• SP 500 Market Analysis 4-8-15

Technical Outlook:

  • Yesterday was setting up for some technical improvements on the daily chart, but an end-of-day sell-off kept the market from capitalizing on the opportunity. 
  • Instead the market remains stuck inside of a rut and showing no propensity to move in either direction. 
  • Nonetheless, all the moving averages remain underneath the price action, and all converged together. 
  • SPY volume was extremely weak yesterday. 
  • VIX managed to bounce yesterday in the afternoon to only finish up 0.3% at 14.78. 
  • It still amazes me that for all of the volatility that we have seen so far this year, that VIX is still below 15. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart continues to provide little in the way of clues about market direction. One of the choppiest charts out there. 
  • The key for the bulls today will be to push the price above Last week’s highs. If it does that, there is a much more legitimate chance that this market is carving out a possible new uptrend. 
  • Still, for the bears, the objective remains to get SPX below 2040 to confirm the double top on the charts. 
  • The convergence of the 5, 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages is a perfect example of how non-directional this market has been over the course of this year. 
  • The trading range continues to get even more narrow, with last week establishing a new lower-high and a higher-low. 
  • You still have the lingering potential double top on the 30 minute chart of SPX but overall the price action there is very uncertain and choppy.
  • Plenty of uncertainty remains in the market short-term. Euro and oil are major players in the market’s direction currently.
  • Oil remains extremely volatile and becoming more so each and every day. Very difficult to trade – as are the oil stocks. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 4-8-15

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