• SP 500 Market Analysis 1-16-13

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.5% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.1% lower. 
  • US futures are trading 0.2% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Price Index (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), Treasury International Capital (9), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10), Housing Market Index (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Strong follow through yesterday creating new all-time intra-day highs, but just short of all-time closing highs. 
  • Once the SPX closes above 1849, the bears will have all chances of a significant pullback temporarily suspended yet again. 
  • At this point the bears need to send price lower without giving up any more ground. Doing so would create the possibility for a short-term double top  using the peak from yesterday and the one from 12/31.
  • Since 12/23, SPX has been trading in consolidation. Above 1849 the SPX will be in breakout mode. 
  • Stochastics looks to make a move towards overbought territory. 
  • Any heavy sell-off at this point needs to take price at least below the rising trend-line off of the October lows – which currently sits at 1818. 
  • After that key support becomes 1809 which is the point where SPX broke out on 12/18/13. 
  • Dip buyers proved that they are looking to buy the dip in 2014 already. 
  • The low 12’s represents support on the VIX. All the bounces since August have occurred here. 
  • Nice bull-flag on the SPX 30 min chart over the past day. 
  • January is trading in much the same way as December 2013 did. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Did not sell any positions yesterday. 
  • Added 2 new positions yesterday. 
  • Remain long AIG at 51.54, TRN at 56.17, ALGN at 58.95, IPG at 17.71. 
  • I will look to add 1-2 new positions today. 
  • Long 50% / Cash 50% 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 1-16-13

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