Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 2.2% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.1% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.3% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30), Industrial Production (9:15)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX flat lined on Friday, continuing a trend now of little to no movement in the index for four straight days. 
  • Five out of the last six trading sessions has seen SPX close with a doji candle. 
  • To say the least indecision about short-term direction is ruling this market for now. 
  • Basically the price levels you should be following is whether the price can close above 2046 or below 2030 on SPX. 
  • The 5-day moving average has yet to be breached on a closing price basis since 10/16.
  • The price action on SPX is very similar to what was seen in late August and early September of this year – very tight consolidation.
  • VIX dropped 3.5% on Friday to 13.31. 
  • Consolidation continues to rule on SPX 30 minute chart. No clear direction though there does seem to be some distribution taking place there. 
  • Whether the rally continues for the foreseeable future or not, one thing remains, and that is it cannot continue for much longer, to rally at the gravity defying slope it has done for over three weeks now. 
  • As a result, consolidation will have to kick in, in order that the trend-line may flatten out some. 
  • Historically trend-lines that are steeper/greater than 45 degrees are nearly impossible to maintain over an extended period of time. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

  • Added one new long position yesterday. 
  • Closed MS at 35.65 for a 3.6% gain. 
  • Closed CAR at 56.67 for a 0.2% gain.
  • Closed CELG at 105.12 for a 3.2% loss.
  • Reduced my long exposure on Friday as the market showing a growing amount of indecision about future direction. 
  • Will consider adding 1-2 new long positions today.  
  • Remain long HUN at 24.73, MAR at 76.11, UA at 68.60, FLEX at 10.98.
  • 50% long / 50% cash. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11-14-14

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