• SP 500 Market Analysis 6-26-13

Pre-market update:

  • European markets are 1.6% higher. 
  • Asian markets traded 1.0% higher.
  • US futures are trading moderately higher.  

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), GDP (8:30am), Pending Home Sales (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX provided me with the bounce I was looking for yesterday and is now trading inside of the Bollinger Bands now. 
  • I think this bounce has some legs to it, and expect to see an extended run. 
  • The one thing you are not seeing that typically accompanies a major market sell-off is continuous bad news coming out. We had the FOMC Statement and that has been it. 
  • I simply do not think the bears can keep driving this market lower without some form of a catalyst, besides the tapering comments made before by the FOMC. 
  • The more the SPX rises the more fear it will strike in the bears, which result in more covering out of fear of losing their gains from last week. 
  • Expect 1601 and 1608 to offer some resistance for the bulls to try and push through. 
  • GDP miss is probably going to stoke more hope that tapering will be put on hold. 
  • Lots of Volume continues to pour in over the last four trading sessions. 
  • Bounces in this situation can be extreme, because the the squeeze on short positions, and the urgency to capture profits from the big gains made over the previous trading sessions. 
  • As a result it often times leads to a mass exodus of bears trying to cover their positions all at once.
  • We are oversold short-term. 
  • We have now established a lower-high and lower low for the first time in this market for 2013. 
  • With recent selling, we are now trading well below the 10,20, and 50-day moving averages. 
  • VIX dropped back into the 18’s. 
  • The S&P 500 is on the verge of having its first down month of 2013. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-26-13

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