Pre-market update:
- European markets are 1.6% higher.
- Asian markets traded 1.0% higher.
- US futures are trading moderately higher.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), GDP (8:30am), Pending Home Sales (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- SPX provided me with the bounce I was looking for yesterday and is now trading inside of the Bollinger Bands now.
- I think this bounce has some legs to it, and expect to see an extended run.
- The one thing you are not seeing that typically accompanies a major market sell-off is continuous bad news coming out. We had the FOMC Statement and that has been it.
- I simply do not think the bears can keep driving this market lower without some form of a catalyst, besides the tapering comments made before by the FOMC.
- The more the SPX rises the more fear it will strike in the bears, which result in more covering out of fear of losing their gains from last week.
- Expect 1601 and 1608 to offer some resistance for the bulls to try and push through.
- GDP miss is probably going to stoke more hope that tapering will be put on hold.
- Lots of Volume continues to pour in over the last four trading sessions.
- Bounces in this situation can be extreme, because the the squeeze on short positions, and the urgency to capture profits from the big gains made over the previous trading sessions.
- As a result it often times leads to a mass exodus of bears trying to cover their positions all at once.
- We are oversold short-term.
- We have now established a lower-high and lower low for the first time in this market for 2013.
- With recent selling, we are now trading well below the 10,20, and 50-day moving averages.
- VIX dropped back into the 18’s.
- The S&P 500 is on the verge of having its first down month of 2013.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Added CME at 76.35.
- Added LPI at 20.28.
- Added GS at 153.16.
- Current Longs: PCYC at 80.56, WLP at 80
- I will look to add 1-2 new positions today.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:

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