Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- Europe is trading 0.7% lower.
- Asian markets traded -0.6% lower.
- US futures are significantly lower, in excess of -1.5% doing to political fallout on the fiscal cliff.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Durable Goods Orders (8:30am), Personal Income and Outlays (8:30am), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Failure of the House to pass the Plan B to avoid the fiscal cliff has created a flash crash overnight and a significantly lower open this morning.
- The thought is, if the House can’t pass their own Plan B, how will it ever pass a compromise between between Boehner and Obama.
- Many times I’ve seen these extremely emotional trading sessions that result in a huge gap down often times get bought up before the close. Be weary of chasing this market with fresh shorts this morning.
- The market bounce nicely off of Wednesday’s pullback, but that is of little consequence now with the opening that we are looking at.
- Watch the VIX for any positive divergences suggesting the bottom is in on the market today.
- As long as the market holds 1411, I think the bullish thesis is still intact.
- Volume should significantly drop off today after
- Fairly good chance we will see the day’s lows put in during the first hour of trading today.
- Pushing this market below 1411 will create a strong bearish advantage, until then, no major worries for the bulls.
- Expect market volume to continue to lighten between now and Christmas.
- Fiscal Cliff talks yesterday deteriorated dramatically.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Sold PHG at $26.78 from $26.34 for a 1.7% gain.
- Bought WYNN at $113.57
- Updated stop-losses in all the existing positions.
- Remain long EW at $91.01, BSBR at $7.03, ADS at $144.99.
- Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance
Chart for SPX:


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