Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

• Europe is trading mixed/flat. 
• Asian markets traded mixed/flat. 
• US futures are trading significantly higher.  

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am), Farm Prices (3pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• SPX finished lower on Friday for the fifth straight day and for the six time in the last seven sessions. 
• Fair value for the market is significantly off this morning after a major drop in after hours trading on Friday due to a breakdown in the Fiscal Cliff talks. Fair value is about 12 points lower than where we closed at. 
• We are likely to test at some point the lower Bollinger Band on SPX. Often times we will repeatedly test this level before actually bouncing. 
• We could see a test of the 200 day moving average. There hasn’t been anything significant about this moving average over the past year in terms of support/resistance so I wouldn’t expect much of it today or going forward. 
• The S&P is going to finish the year in positive territory and likely in excess of 10%. 
• Expect light volume levels considering it is New Year’s Eve today.
• SPX is currently trading in oversold territory. 
• We finished Friday below the critical level of 1411 which thereby ends the trend off of the November lows and creates a new lower-low. 
• SPX is continuing to price in the strong possibility that we are going over the “Fiscal Cliff” tomorrow.
• On the flip side, if we are surprised by some kind of mutual agreement between now and the end of the year, expect a major rip higher in the markets – likely  30-40 points on the SPX. 
• Weekly chart still looks bearish overall with the failure at overhead resistance keeping the market from progressing higher. 
• The 30-min chart had gone decidedly bearish with a new lower-low and end to the previous uptrend. 
• VIX finished above 22 – a level that hasn’t been reached since June. 

My Opinions & Trades:

• Stopped out of VMC at $51.33 for a -3.2% loss. 
• No current positions. 
• Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX: