Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded -0.1% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.4% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Consumer Price Index (8:30), Current Account (8:30), Housing Index (10), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30), FOMC Statement (2)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Huge day yesterday for the market as SPX rocketed back above broken support at 1987 and closed just below 2000. 
  • Today is the Fed Day, where they release the FOMC Statement at 2pm eastern. 
  • Under Janet Yellen the moves have not been overly significant. The outcome is anticlimactic to the buildup. 
  • Yesterday’s rally was based primarily on a rumor that was published in regards to the Fed and what they will do with interest rates. 
  • I have a sneaky suspicion that we might be seeing a “buy-the-rumor & sell-the-news” scenario regarding the FOMC Statement. 
  • In fact with yesterday’s move, it would seem to me that the market is pricing in perfection. So even if the Fed is slightly disappointing or not as dovish as they expected, the market will likely sell-off as a result. 
  • Be prepared for shakeouts after the statement is released. Most times it makes 1-2 sporadic moves initially before settling in on its true direction. 
  • Downward channel on the SPX 30-minute chart was broken yesterday. 
  • VIX got creamed by dropping 9.8% down to 12.73. 
  • September, so far is trading in a very similar pattern to July, except this time around it is an even tighter trading range. 
  • At the moment there is little to no fear in this market. That can always change, but no major themes in the market that can cause problems for it right now. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

  • Covered MGM yesterday at 22.03 for a 7.3% gain. 
  • Covered APC at 107.11 for a 1% loss. 
  • Did not add any new positions yesterday. 
  • Remain long MAS at 23.72.
  • Will look to add 1-2 new long position today if the market bounces here – also willing to open 1-2 new short positions should the market continue to decline.
  • 10% Long / 90% Cash
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 9-17-14

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